It looks like Franken is now pulling ahead of Coleman in the Minnesota Senate race. An interesting indicator to look at is futures markets. In Iowa you can put money on who is likely to win an election. The futures markets have been more accurate in predicting outcomes than the best polls for a while. Here is an article that has Franken ahead in futures markets:
http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2008/10/13/3861/franken_rallies_coleman_tanks_in_iowa_futures_market
Real clear politics also has Franken with a 2 point lead in their average (well within the margin of error but officially making the race a toss-up).
The weighted model on www.fivethirtyeight.com is also leaning Frankin, giving him a 55% probability of winning the election. For those who don't know how these probabilities are figured you can read up on it here:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html
It basically goes like this: 538 gives polls a weighting based on the accuracy in previous elections, factors in a regression trend line, does a few other fancy whosits and whatsits, then uses this data to simulate the election 10,000 times and project a winner based on those simulations. According to this model Franken is now slightly more likely to win the election than he is to lose it.
And because we are interested in political advertising, here is an "ad battle":
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
1 comment:
Is it something about Minnesota? Jesse "The Body" Ventura managed to be elected governor and now Al Franken is suddenly becoming an electable guy. The ad strategy in the Anti-Franken piece Ben posted is calling Franken "not fit for office" which is a valid argument, but the way the Coleman media team has constructed Franken has some interesting ethics issues. The string of clips they've put together paint a pretty nasty picture of Franken, but I wonder how many other candidates for any office have as much non-political camera time in their career to draw from? Clearly celebrities running for office don't have it easy.
Here's a link to a piece from the Star Tribune in Minnesota that makes a case for Obama's national momentum giving Franken the unexpected push he needs to become a contender in the Minnesota race. http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/30945179.html?elr=KArksD:aDyaEP:kD:aUt:aDyaEP:kD:aUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
Post a Comment