Monday, October 27, 2008

Republican incumbent Susan Collins is running away with Maine Senate race

At the beginning of the election cycle, it was widely reported that Maine Senator Susan Collins was one of the most vulnerable Republicans in 2008. Interestingly enough, however, Collins, who is running against the popular Congressman Tom Allen from the state's southern district, has coasted to a double digit lead for quite sometime now. A Critical Insights poll, for instance, recently found that Collins was up by 14 points.

In a rather lengthy expose, The New York Times set out to discover why Collins may now be one of the safest candidates in a race once thought to be competitive. Despite Allen's strong reputation and fundraising talents, as well as widespread disdain for President Bush, Collins appears to be coming out on top because of her image as a moderate. As the state's co-chairwoman for the McCain campaign, Collins made news by critiquing her party's nominee for raunchy attack ads and automated calls. She is also considered bipartisan by the majority of Maine voters, which has made her especially appealing to moderates and independents. In addition to her moderate status, Collins has been praised by some media outlets for taking her opponent seriously by campaigning early.

A few questions: 1) Should we consider this one in the bag for Collins? Can someone catch up from a 10 point deficit with only days remaining? 2) Could Collins be getting a boost from Clinton supporters excited and mobilized to elect other qualified women for office? 3) If the Collins-Bush connection is not sticking for Allen, what other issues or strategies might he depend on in the closing days?

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