Kentucky Senate race

On first glance the Kentucky senate race does not seem very interesting. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is actually facing a challenge in his re-election bid. Real Clear Politics gives him a slight advantage (3.6 percent), but the race remains a toss up. This tight competition has caused McConnell to spend a good deal of time on the campaign trail. In fact, he even skipped a debate last night to campaign in western Kentucky.

Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford is certainly not riding Obama's coattails. Real Clear Politics shows McCain leading by 12.4 percent in Kentucky. However, there does seem to be some dissatisfaction with Republicans there. Two years ago a five-term Republican congress woman was voted out. She is now trying to regain her former seat. The Louisville newspaper says she faces an "uphill battle," and one recent poll shows her trailing by 16 points.

Of course, this congressional district includes urbane Louisville. So one could simply dismiss it as Democrats consolidating power in metropolitan areas. If that were the case, then McConnell would not have too many worries. However, Republicans have also lost statewide elections in Kentucky. Clinton won the state twice. The Republican governor was recently voted out by a large margin. (See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/ky/kentucky_senate-917.html.)

I think the last two presidential elections have led us to believe that Southern Democrats and Northern Republicans are creatures of the past. The Maine senate race has been discussed elsewhere on this blog, showing that moderate Republicans are still viable candidates in the north. I wonder if we are too quick to assign partisan labels to states based on the results of presidential elections.