North Carolina gubernatorial race

Elsewhere on this blog we have discussed the tight senate race in North Carolina. The gubernatorial race in that state also appears close. The candidates in this race are the Democratic Lt. Governor Bev Perdue, and the Republican Mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory. Currently Democratic candidate Bev Perdue has a very slight lead, according to Pollster.com. This might be quickly dismissed as merely part of national mood that favors Democrats. Upon closer examination, the narrative of this race is more interesting.

Perdue has tried to appeal to North Carolina's rural voters. This violates the notion of rural Republicans and urban Democrats, but Perdue has a few advantages on this. For instance,Andy Griffith offers his endorsement in one of her television commercials. More important, Perdue has the advantage of background. Her campaign Web site highlights her small-town roots, along with her accomplishments as a state senator and lieutenant governor. McCrory is in his seventh term as mayor of North Carolina's biggest city. His campaign Web site lists several impressive accomplishments, such as bringing light rail to Charlotte and encouraging mixed use development.

McCrory's disadvantage is that he been successful on issues that probably won't resonate with rural voters. Perdue has seized upon this, but she has also been charged with criticizing Charlotte, rather than just attacking McCrory. Given McCrory's longevity in Charlotte's city government, it may be difficult for her to separate the two. McCrory has suggested that Perdue is only critical of Charlotte while speaking in rural areas. One Democratic-leaning poll shows a significant lead for McCrory in Charlotte, which accounts for 20 percent of voters statewide.

So essentially we are seeing a Republican who has a natural advantage in the state's largest city. If we believe the notion that Democrats do best in urban areas, then this race would seem difficult for Perdue. Yet she is doing well. Perhaps campaigning in rural areas is not a waste of time for Democrats.