Chambliss: No Supermajority for the Dems

While the Minnesota race remains too close to call, a very close and contentious election has come to a close in Georgia. As many of you likely know, the Senate race in Georgia went to a runoff between incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democrat challenger Jim Martin because neither candidate captured over 50 percent of the vote on November 4th. According to MSNBC (http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/12/03/1696852.aspx), voter turn-out was down significantly, especially among African American voters. Overall turnout was down by nearly half; a quarter of voters in the run-off were black (as compared to one-third on November 4th). Chambliss won by a considerable amount with 57% of the vote.

The implications of this outcome are tremendous. It guarantees that Democrats cannot hold a supermajority capable of overriding a filibuster (60 votes are needed). This may prove to be an important barrier for Obama and a democratic congress to push their agenda through. It also reduces the stakes in the Minnesota run-off because that outcome can no longer swing control of the Senate.

The overhanging specter of the supermajority became an important tool for Chambliss's campaign leading up to the run-off election. He was able to successfully cast himself as the 'key firewall' that could hold off an impenetrable supermajority by the Democrats (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hHW-ZJ03DLcUGUM9z9p2nkbRAG-QD94R6TMO0). He and other high-profile GOP figures (such as Sarah Palin) were able to use this threat to whip up support and mobilize a strong conservative turn-out.

MN still to close to call

Most of the votes have been recounted in the Coleman/Franken race and we still are not sure who will win.
The following are outstanding variables: do we trust the Franken camps numbers or the MN secretary of state numbers? The Franken camp has him behind 50 votes as of this morning. The official MN numbers are bigger, the difference is that they count every challenged ballot as a no vote and the Franken people assume that all challenged ballots will eventually be counted. There is reason to prefer this assumption since most challenges by both sides are frivolous and the legitimate ones will probably balance each other out.
Second: 171 votes were discovered today. The precinct that found them apparently has a voting machine malfunction on election day that caused the votes to be overlooked. However, the Coleman campaign is challenging these ballots, suggesting that the numbers for voting in the precinct don't add up with the addition of these ballots. These ballots would net 37 more votes for Franken.
For those counting at home, this means Franken could be 13 votes away from officially blurring the line between politics and political satire.
Also breaking Franken's way, it looks like the state is willing to consider counting the rejected absentee ballots. Franken people think these ballots could represent a net gain of 25-100 votes for the Democrat.
Here is a decent article on the subject:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35382149.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:DiiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
and a good blog post (with updates on Georgia too)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

A Final Update: Maine's US Senate race one month later

Incumbent Republican Susan Collins, once seen as the most vulnerable member of the U.S. Senate in 2008, ended up beating her opponent Democrat Tom Allen by twenty-two points (61-39 %) . Surprisingly, when Maine Democrats won both House seats by very large margins, Collins won every county except one, took the state's bluest cities for the first time in her career, and became the only Republican elected to federal office in New England during this cycle. How did she do it? Most pundits claim that Collins' "message of bipartisanship and independence trumped her opponent's attempt to link her to President Bush's policies on Iraq, the economy, health care and energy." Thus, Collins succeeded in distancing herself from Bush. The Senator's election is said to be important news for the state, since the moderate "women from Maine" - including senior Senator Olympia Snowe - can prevent a Republican fillabuster and help the Obama administration usher in a series of reforms. In short, as some predict, look for Maine's senators to be picking up positions as chairs of Congress's most important committees.

All this raises a few questions: 1) Did any other Republican Senator succeed by following Collins; bipartisan message? 2) Is this the strategy Republicans need to adopt in the next election? Should they be composed of a party of mavericks?

Begich keeps things sqeaky clean (apparently wishes Washington did too)

So with months and months to create scathing advertisements against indicted and now convicted Republican AK Senator, Ted Stevens, Mark Begich, has kept things relatively clean.

Very clean in fact. Here's the dirtiest ad I could find, and it's about a car wash:



I think the "Ultimate Car Wash" is charming. I don't know if Jim would agree given how easy this would be to take negative, but the fact that he's not going for the jugular appears to be working. He's still up by double-digits (10.3 on Real Clear Politics). The rest of his ads are about his history (his dad was a U.S. Congressman who was lost in a plane crash), his "I-don't-care-about-politics" middle of the road stuff (the guy is for drilling in ANWR), and call for a Senator "as independent as Alaska."

Here's how 'negative' he goes on his website:

"Alaskans expect their elected officials to live by the highest standards of honesty, integrity, and transparency. Unfortunately, Alaskans have been let down by their elected officials. Secret meetings, hidden favors, special access for special interests, and now convicted legislators have given Alaska a black eye. The only way to restore Alaskans trust in their elected leaders is for them to earn it."

I'm actually very pleased by what I've found (or not found). How easy would it be to run an ad or two with a grainy picture of Stevens superimposed over a deck with a nice grill? Or maybe an ad where Begich pulls a gun on Stevens' oil-co. cronies? If the smiley-everyman thing works in Alaska, then Begich knows it. I'm not saying he's being extra ethical or genuine by not cutting Stevens' throat. I'm just saying it's refreshing.

Of course, if I was a voter receiving direct mail in Alaska, who knows what I'd find?

Ted Stevens not done redecorating? Convicted AK senator still pushing for reelection

So Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) had a good thing going for him, being the longest-serving Republican Senator in history and then this happened a few months ago:

I didn't know they were from an oil company...

And then this happened a few days ago:

Like none of you have ever accepted tens and thousands in gifts and services from corporations you're supposed to be protecting the people from

So what was a lock became a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) and what was a tight race became advantage Begich, who is up 10 percent on Real Clear Politics. But not everyone says that Stevens is out, least of all Stevens himself:

Drill, baby, Drill. Spend, baby, Spend.

One has to wonder how this will play out on election day. Stevens thinks he's innocent enough to stay in the senate, and counting on voters to agree. After all, who wouldn't let their friend keep a gas grill or two at their house?

I plan on taking a deeper look at how each candidate is campaigning in the eleventh hour given this hot-button issue. Makes for tricky territory. I'll also keep you posted on how the stuff falls on Tuesday. Could be a new era for the AK senate seat.

It goes without saying that I don't expect much of an up-ballot bump for Obama even if Begich does pull things out. NPR has McCain/Palin up 15 percent in the state. If anything, Stevens might enjoy some help from the lipstick pitbull.

MN: Coleman/Franken

It looks like Franken is now pulling ahead of Coleman in the Minnesota Senate race. An interesting indicator to look at is futures markets. In Iowa you can put money on who is likely to win an election. The futures markets have been more accurate in predicting outcomes than the best polls for a while. Here is an article that has Franken ahead in futures markets:
http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2008/10/13/3861/franken_rallies_coleman_tanks_in_iowa_futures_market
Real clear politics also has Franken with a 2 point lead in their average (well within the margin of error but officially making the race a toss-up).
The weighted model on www.fivethirtyeight.com is also leaning Frankin, giving him a 55% probability of winning the election. For those who don't know how these probabilities are figured you can read up on it here:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html
It basically goes like this: 538 gives polls a weighting based on the accuracy in previous elections, factors in a regression trend line, does a few other fancy whosits and whatsits, then uses this data to simulate the election 10,000 times and project a winner based on those simulations. According to this model Franken is now slightly more likely to win the election than he is to lose it.

And because we are interested in political advertising, here is an "ad battle":