...many of the things I was going to discuss have been hit on quite expertly by Lacey and J.D. I guess it's my fault for waiting until the evening to post. I'll do my best to hit on some different themes.
1. J.D. talked about technology in regards to what McCain could have done differently, I'd like to pose a question not about the past, but about the future. How will candidates in the future use technology? Will the facebooking, and the emailing, and the texting, etc., be part and parcel of political campaigning in the future? Or was this a unique part of the Obama "movement" phenomenon? You really could ask the same question about incremental donations. Will technology allow these kind of numerous small donations to become more commonplace? Or once again, was this an Obama thing?
2. So, Struthers asked "what happened" in regards to the most important issue of the campaign. A few of you gave some suggestions, but I'd like to know what each of you regard as the most important moment in this election, if there indeed was one.
3. Last, Struthers said something to the effect of "we've lived up to Dr. Martin Luther King's dream." Do you agree with the sentiment? If not, what's left to accomplish? What will it take to completely fulfil Dr. King's dream for our nation?
Thursday, November 6, 2008
More discussion questions!
1) Mr. Strother talked about how after he went to the Obama rally he began receiving "personalized" emails based on his age, income level, etc. I believe Eddie also mentioned in after the study group, but it seems that Obama has utilized this campaign to perfect the art of microtargeting. Do you think that the McCain campaign suffered from their lack of microtargeting? Did Obama overdo the microtargeting? Also, as Eddie mentioned, some members of our class had a somewhat negative attitude towards microtargeting. Has your opinion changed with this campaign or do you still feel like it is one step too far?
2) Mr. Strother said that in some places nearly 30 or 40% of the population turned out for early voting, suggesting the idea that perhaps in future elections we will not so much have an "Election day" as we will a "election month." How will campaigns have to adjust their advertising strategies to ensure that their reach as many voters as possible before they cast their ballot? Do you think that the "late October surprise" that we have joked about will become non-existent?
3) Finally, we have all recognized what a historic event this election is. Not only was the first black man elected President of the United States, but for the first time a woman had a viable chance at the entering the executive sphere as well. What aspects of this campaign will live onto make history books in the future? Do you think Palin's poor showing in the campaign will discourage the GOP from stepping outside the box again? Do you think that the glass ceiling has been shattered, or was this just a pure publicity stunt on the part of McCain. (I know the questions I am asking are very black/white, but I'm curious as to the implications for the future of Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates for the future.) Was Palin a one-hit wonder, or will the nomination of a female running mate become a common thing?
2) Mr. Strother said that in some places nearly 30 or 40% of the population turned out for early voting, suggesting the idea that perhaps in future elections we will not so much have an "Election day" as we will a "election month." How will campaigns have to adjust their advertising strategies to ensure that their reach as many voters as possible before they cast their ballot? Do you think that the "late October surprise" that we have joked about will become non-existent?
3) Finally, we have all recognized what a historic event this election is. Not only was the first black man elected President of the United States, but for the first time a woman had a viable chance at the entering the executive sphere as well. What aspects of this campaign will live onto make history books in the future? Do you think Palin's poor showing in the campaign will discourage the GOP from stepping outside the box again? Do you think that the glass ceiling has been shattered, or was this just a pure publicity stunt on the part of McCain. (I know the questions I am asking are very black/white, but I'm curious as to the implications for the future of Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates for the future.) Was Palin a one-hit wonder, or will the nomination of a female running mate become a common thing?
Discussion Questions for November 5, 2008
1) Clearly, one facet that sets this election apart is technology. Ray Strother said… “Technology has changed everything…It has improved campaigns in my opinion.” Ray claims that the computer revolution has created an environment were campaigning has gone back to “door to door” and “person to person.” What are your thoughts on the role of technology in this election? What does it mean for future elections? And, what do you think about Ray’s anecdote about 9,000 people making phone calls at rallies? Is this ethical? Is this what modern democracy looks like? Regardless of your feelings about the outcome of this election, technology poses a host of new considerations for political communication. What should we be excited about? What aspects of technology should we be aiming our most critical scholarly lenses at?
Knowing what we do about the results of this election, if you could magically go back in time how would you advise the McCain camp? Is there a strategy that could have defeated a campaign as well run and consistent as the Obama campaign? Presumably, this is the question facing the Republicans in 2012. The Obama re-election campaign will likely be at least as strong and utilize at bear minimum the strategies that worked so well in 2008. To what degree does this election demand an overhaul of the status quo in presidential campaigns as Ray Strother has suggested?
2) Several weeks back Republican pollster Whit Ayers predicted the RNC’s strategy of “Don’t Let the Democrats Have it All” in the last few weeks of the election. At this moment we are still anticipating a recount in Minnesota and a run-off in Georgia, but knowing what we do now or will in the next few days about the make-up of the next Congress, what effect did this message have if any? Secondly, what strategies worked in the last few weeks and what seemed like pure desperation? In the North Carolina senate race between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole the attack on Hagan’s faith seemed both desperate and uncommonly mean, did any one else see ads in their races turn extremely ugly in the final weeks? What if anything could change in the area of “negative ads” as a result of this election cycle?
3) Finally, yesterday, Ray Strother asked “What Happened?” As we look back at this election what were the “Words that Work” from this campaign? What campaign messages were “Made To Stick” and what messaging strategies have we already forgotten from this historic campaign? If you are the McCain camp, were there messaging strategies that could have worked that weren’t used? Could those that were used have worked if they had been more “on message?”
In what ways did we see concepts from “Applebees’ s America” rear their heads in this election? What role did the exurbanites play or not play in electing our new president? Eddie asked yesterday given the outcome of the election “how many people still have a problem with micro-targeting?” Personally, I still see micro-targeting as a massive and very serious threat to civil liberties and privacy. Additional thoughts? Ray Strother said elections will… “…never, ever be the same again.” What are the implications of strategies of this type for future elections? What’s next in the realm of the citizen consumer and political strategy?
Knowing what we do about the results of this election, if you could magically go back in time how would you advise the McCain camp? Is there a strategy that could have defeated a campaign as well run and consistent as the Obama campaign? Presumably, this is the question facing the Republicans in 2012. The Obama re-election campaign will likely be at least as strong and utilize at bear minimum the strategies that worked so well in 2008. To what degree does this election demand an overhaul of the status quo in presidential campaigns as Ray Strother has suggested?
2) Several weeks back Republican pollster Whit Ayers predicted the RNC’s strategy of “Don’t Let the Democrats Have it All” in the last few weeks of the election. At this moment we are still anticipating a recount in Minnesota and a run-off in Georgia, but knowing what we do now or will in the next few days about the make-up of the next Congress, what effect did this message have if any? Secondly, what strategies worked in the last few weeks and what seemed like pure desperation? In the North Carolina senate race between Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole the attack on Hagan’s faith seemed both desperate and uncommonly mean, did any one else see ads in their races turn extremely ugly in the final weeks? What if anything could change in the area of “negative ads” as a result of this election cycle?
3) Finally, yesterday, Ray Strother asked “What Happened?” As we look back at this election what were the “Words that Work” from this campaign? What campaign messages were “Made To Stick” and what messaging strategies have we already forgotten from this historic campaign? If you are the McCain camp, were there messaging strategies that could have worked that weren’t used? Could those that were used have worked if they had been more “on message?”
In what ways did we see concepts from “Applebees’ s America” rear their heads in this election? What role did the exurbanites play or not play in electing our new president? Eddie asked yesterday given the outcome of the election “how many people still have a problem with micro-targeting?” Personally, I still see micro-targeting as a massive and very serious threat to civil liberties and privacy. Additional thoughts? Ray Strother said elections will… “…never, ever be the same again.” What are the implications of strategies of this type for future elections? What’s next in the realm of the citizen consumer and political strategy?
Monday, November 3, 2008
Predictions
I suppose I will start the predictions...
1. Presidential race - popular vote: Obama-52% McCain-47%
2. Presidential race - electoral votes: Obama-311 McCain-227
3. North Carolina Senate - Kay Hagan
Minnesota Senate - Norm Coleman
KS-02 Senate - Lynn Jenkins
1. Presidential race - popular vote: Obama-52% McCain-47%
2. Presidential race - electoral votes: Obama-311 McCain-227
3. North Carolina Senate - Kay Hagan
Minnesota Senate - Norm Coleman
KS-02 Senate - Lynn Jenkins
Should Georgia have been on our minds?
I am surprised that the Georgia senate race has not captured more national media attention. The incumbent in this race is Republican Saxby Chambliss, who faces Democratic challenger Jim Martin. There are two reasons why I'd expect this race to gain more attention. First, it is close. Right now, Real Clear Politics is giving Chambliss a three percent advantage . The recent history of the senate seat is the second reason why I'd expect this race to garner more attention.
Chambliss won the seat in 2002 from incumbent Democrat Max Cleland. During that race, Chambliss ran commercials like this one:
At the time, this advertisement was criticized by Republican senators Chuck Hagel and John McCain. Six years later, Chambliss is facing a challenge from his college fraternity brother Jim Martin (This human interest angle is actually another reason why I'd expect this race to gain national attention.). Though the candidates might be friends, that hasn't stopped Chambliss from running advertisments like this one:
This appears to be Chambliss' harshest and most personal attack on Martin. Otherwise, he has attacked Martin on taxes, and for being a Democrat.
Martin has kept his focus on the economy, sometimes tying Chambliss to the president's economic policies. Martin has also benefited from a series of advertisements that attack on Chambliss, courtesy of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. The following DSCC advertisement attacks Chambliss for supporting a 23 percent national sales tax:
Chambliss won the seat in 2002 from incumbent Democrat Max Cleland. During that race, Chambliss ran commercials like this one:
At the time, this advertisement was criticized by Republican senators Chuck Hagel and John McCain. Six years later, Chambliss is facing a challenge from his college fraternity brother Jim Martin (This human interest angle is actually another reason why I'd expect this race to gain national attention.). Though the candidates might be friends, that hasn't stopped Chambliss from running advertisments like this one:
This appears to be Chambliss' harshest and most personal attack on Martin. Otherwise, he has attacked Martin on taxes, and for being a Democrat.
Martin has kept his focus on the economy, sometimes tying Chambliss to the president's economic policies. Martin has also benefited from a series of advertisements that attack on Chambliss, courtesy of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee. The following DSCC advertisement attacks Chambliss for supporting a 23 percent national sales tax:
Begich keeps things sqeaky clean (apparently wishes Washington did too)
So with months and months to create scathing advertisements against indicted and now convicted Republican AK Senator, Ted Stevens, Mark Begich, has kept things relatively clean.
Very clean in fact. Here's the dirtiest ad I could find, and it's about a car wash:
I think the "Ultimate Car Wash" is charming. I don't know if Jim would agree given how easy this would be to take negative, but the fact that he's not going for the jugular appears to be working. He's still up by double-digits (10.3 on Real Clear Politics). The rest of his ads are about his history (his dad was a U.S. Congressman who was lost in a plane crash), his "I-don't-care-about-politics" middle of the road stuff (the guy is for drilling in ANWR), and call for a Senator "as independent as Alaska."
Here's how 'negative' he goes on his website:
"Alaskans expect their elected officials to live by the highest standards of honesty, integrity, and transparency. Unfortunately, Alaskans have been let down by their elected officials. Secret meetings, hidden favors, special access for special interests, and now convicted legislators have given Alaska a black eye. The only way to restore Alaskans trust in their elected leaders is for them to earn it."
Very clean in fact. Here's the dirtiest ad I could find, and it's about a car wash:
I think the "Ultimate Car Wash" is charming. I don't know if Jim would agree given how easy this would be to take negative, but the fact that he's not going for the jugular appears to be working. He's still up by double-digits (10.3 on Real Clear Politics). The rest of his ads are about his history (his dad was a U.S. Congressman who was lost in a plane crash), his "I-don't-care-about-politics" middle of the road stuff (the guy is for drilling in ANWR), and call for a Senator "as independent as Alaska."
Here's how 'negative' he goes on his website:
"Alaskans expect their elected officials to live by the highest standards of honesty, integrity, and transparency. Unfortunately, Alaskans have been let down by their elected officials. Secret meetings, hidden favors, special access for special interests, and now convicted legislators have given Alaska a black eye. The only way to restore Alaskans trust in their elected leaders is for them to earn it."
I'm actually very pleased by what I've found (or not found). How easy would it be to run an ad or two with a grainy picture of Stevens superimposed over a deck with a nice grill? Or maybe an ad where Begich pulls a gun on Stevens' oil-co. cronies? If the smiley-everyman thing works in Alaska, then Begich knows it. I'm not saying he's being extra ethical or genuine by not cutting Stevens' throat. I'm just saying it's refreshing.
Of course, if I was a voter receiving direct mail in Alaska, who knows what I'd find?
Election Eve Report from North Carolina Senate Race
The Dole Hagan race for the North Carolina race has heated up over the last week of the campaign. The Dole camp has launched a provocative new ad accusing Hagan of consorting with "atheists." The ad embedded below asks... "If Godless Americans through a party in your honor would you attend." It's pretty rough stuff, see for yourself.
The Wall Street Journal makes note of the unexpected "dead heat" in North Carolina, but RealClearPolitics still shows Hagan leading in the polls up by +5.5. The article talks about the continued impact of new voter registration and voter turnout. According to the article "State officials" predict a million more voters will vote in North Carolina this election than did in 2004. While Dole has received some prominent endorsements, according to the Journal, even some of her supporters question the ethics behind the last minute attacks on Hagan a "Presbyterian Sunday school teacher" and her "Godless" affiliations. Have others seen attacks of faith in the final weeks of their campaign watch?
Finally, the article quotes Dole saying... "Republicans are outnumbered in registrations, so you can't win without Democrats," she said. "I've had people tell me they voted Obama-Dole." I wonder how many other down ticket races are seeing the Republicans candidate deploy similar strategies to distance themselves from the top of the ticket in the waning moments of this campaign.
Link to the Wall Street Journal article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122557136327590909.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
The Wall Street Journal makes note of the unexpected "dead heat" in North Carolina, but RealClearPolitics still shows Hagan leading in the polls up by +5.5. The article talks about the continued impact of new voter registration and voter turnout. According to the article "State officials" predict a million more voters will vote in North Carolina this election than did in 2004. While Dole has received some prominent endorsements, according to the Journal, even some of her supporters question the ethics behind the last minute attacks on Hagan a "Presbyterian Sunday school teacher" and her "Godless" affiliations. Have others seen attacks of faith in the final weeks of their campaign watch?
Finally, the article quotes Dole saying... "Republicans are outnumbered in registrations, so you can't win without Democrats," she said. "I've had people tell me they voted Obama-Dole." I wonder how many other down ticket races are seeing the Republicans candidate deploy similar strategies to distance themselves from the top of the ticket in the waning moments of this campaign.
Link to the Wall Street Journal article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122557136327590909.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Coal - New Stump Speech Addition
In Ohio today, Palin jumped on what she claims was a "hidden" San Francisco Chronicle audio tape that alludes to Obama's intent to "bankrupt the coal industry." The actual audio suggests that new coal plants would go bankrupt under a cap and trade scheme unless "new technology" were introduced that substantially reduce new plant C02 outputs.
In the struggle for framing, the republicans and even the SF Chronicle have accepted the framing of the audio as Obama's plan to "bankrupt the industry" instead of the actual audio that indicates NEW coal plants are the target. It should be mentioned that these plants are owned by UTILITIES not the "coal industry."
The next step in the spin game is to link the SF chronicle into the liberal media. This article: article indicates just that, when Palin asked her audience "why this audio is just now surfacing." The overwhelming crowd response: "Liberal media"
She also suggested that there is something about San Francisco that is like a "truth serum" when she made a connection to this interview and Obama's "guns and religion" comment.
Coal is an important resource with much symbolic power for the populations of eastern swing states. I would be willing to bet that this new campaign tactic will gain just enough media coverage to turn (or suppress) some voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The question is whether the monday before the election is too little too late.
This year, we have witnessed how new revelations about Bill Ayers and Rev. White etc. have the ability to reduce support for Obama in the polls. Even if the reduction is minor, McCain has been gaining in the polls the last week, momentum builders couldn't hurt his campaign in close races in these swing states. When this type of negative uncertainty is raised about a candidate, the offended campaign needs time to rebuild their candidate's character. I'm interested to see what will happen in the next 24 hours with this particular issue with both campaigns.
Obama's response is already canned "This is a non-issue, it's a distraction from what is hurting real Americans. McCain advocates cap-and-trade, and Obama obviously would not want to bankrupt the 'coal industry.'"
Brian's Fair and Balanced Blogging:
http://newsbusters.org/node/25829?q=blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/11/02/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry
Script:
Let me sort of describe my overall policy.
What I've said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's out there.
I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.
So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted.
In the struggle for framing, the republicans and even the SF Chronicle have accepted the framing of the audio as Obama's plan to "bankrupt the industry" instead of the actual audio that indicates NEW coal plants are the target. It should be mentioned that these plants are owned by UTILITIES not the "coal industry."
The next step in the spin game is to link the SF chronicle into the liberal media. This article: article indicates just that, when Palin asked her audience "why this audio is just now surfacing." The overwhelming crowd response: "Liberal media"
She also suggested that there is something about San Francisco that is like a "truth serum" when she made a connection to this interview and Obama's "guns and religion" comment.
Coal is an important resource with much symbolic power for the populations of eastern swing states. I would be willing to bet that this new campaign tactic will gain just enough media coverage to turn (or suppress) some voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The question is whether the monday before the election is too little too late.
This year, we have witnessed how new revelations about Bill Ayers and Rev. White etc. have the ability to reduce support for Obama in the polls. Even if the reduction is minor, McCain has been gaining in the polls the last week, momentum builders couldn't hurt his campaign in close races in these swing states. When this type of negative uncertainty is raised about a candidate, the offended campaign needs time to rebuild their candidate's character. I'm interested to see what will happen in the next 24 hours with this particular issue with both campaigns.
Obama's response is already canned "This is a non-issue, it's a distraction from what is hurting real Americans. McCain advocates cap-and-trade, and Obama obviously would not want to bankrupt the 'coal industry.'"
Brian's Fair and Balanced Blogging:
http://newsbusters.org/node/25829?q=blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/11/02/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry
Script:
Let me sort of describe my overall policy.
What I've said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else's out there.
I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.
So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Signs that campaigns are changing...
Perhaps everyone else has already seen them, but while walking through Lawrence the other day I noticed a sign with Obama's name on it and the official Obama logo. Above it read "Si se puede" which means "Yes we can" in spanish. My mom reported seeing one in Emporia as well, where there is a heavy hispanic population.
After I saw the sign it struck me that this was the first political campaign piece of paraphernalia that I have ever seen not in English. Obama has hit on a group not usually targeted by campaigns, reinforcing his idea that he will bring change.
It made me wonder if Luntz's Words that Work can be translated into other languages and be just as successful. Thoughts?
After I saw the sign it struck me that this was the first political campaign piece of paraphernalia that I have ever seen not in English. Obama has hit on a group not usually targeted by campaigns, reinforcing his idea that he will bring change.
It made me wonder if Luntz's Words that Work can be translated into other languages and be just as successful. Thoughts?
Ted Stevens not done redecorating? Convicted AK senator still pushing for reelection
So Alaska Senator Ted Stevens (R) had a good thing going for him, being the longest-serving Republican Senator in history and then this happened a few months ago:
I didn't know they were from an oil company...
And then this happened a few days ago:
Like none of you have ever accepted tens and thousands in gifts and services from corporations you're supposed to be protecting the people from
So what was a lock became a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) and what was a tight race became advantage Begich, who is up 10 percent on Real Clear Politics. But not everyone says that Stevens is out, least of all Stevens himself:
Drill, baby, Drill. Spend, baby, Spend.
One has to wonder how this will play out on election day. Stevens thinks he's innocent enough to stay in the senate, and counting on voters to agree. After all, who wouldn't let their friend keep a gas grill or two at their house?
I plan on taking a deeper look at how each candidate is campaigning in the eleventh hour given this hot-button issue. Makes for tricky territory. I'll also keep you posted on how the stuff falls on Tuesday. Could be a new era for the AK senate seat.
It goes without saying that I don't expect much of an up-ballot bump for Obama even if Begich does pull things out. NPR has McCain/Palin up 15 percent in the state. If anything, Stevens might enjoy some help from the lipstick pitbull.
I didn't know they were from an oil company...
And then this happened a few days ago:
Like none of you have ever accepted tens and thousands in gifts and services from corporations you're supposed to be protecting the people from
So what was a lock became a tight race with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) and what was a tight race became advantage Begich, who is up 10 percent on Real Clear Politics. But not everyone says that Stevens is out, least of all Stevens himself:
Drill, baby, Drill. Spend, baby, Spend.
One has to wonder how this will play out on election day. Stevens thinks he's innocent enough to stay in the senate, and counting on voters to agree. After all, who wouldn't let their friend keep a gas grill or two at their house?
I plan on taking a deeper look at how each candidate is campaigning in the eleventh hour given this hot-button issue. Makes for tricky territory. I'll also keep you posted on how the stuff falls on Tuesday. Could be a new era for the AK senate seat.
It goes without saying that I don't expect much of an up-ballot bump for Obama even if Begich does pull things out. NPR has McCain/Palin up 15 percent in the state. If anything, Stevens might enjoy some help from the lipstick pitbull.
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