Tuesday, September 2, 2008

The Question of Clinton Supporters

A lot of the discussion surrounding the Palin pick is whether or not she will be able to pick up Clinton supporters (also seems to be the only real reason for McCain to have selected her). Many think that there will be at least a small percentage of people who will jump on the bandwagon for the sole reason of Palin being a woman; however, others have given the voters a little more credit than that. Palin is certainly no substitute for Clinton if voters truly believed in what Clinton stood for on the issues.

A poll was conducted the two days following the Palin announcement that should give us some faith in the voters. Gallup seems to breeze over the fact that this poll was conducted post VP announcement and focuses more on the impact of the convention. However, I believe the results should still be comforting to Obama supporters. After the convention and the announcement of Palin, the percentage of Clinton supporters who said they were certain to vote for McCain went down by 4 percent and the number of Clinton supporters who said they were certain to vote for Obama went up by 18 percent.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109957/Obama-Gains-Among-Former-Clinton-Supporters.aspx

I think this shows that when people really examine their beliefs, they realize that voting to make a statement is a mistake when it will come back to haunt them in the form of policy those voters do not support.

1 comment:

Ben the Blogger said...

This is right on. It also seems there is a Palin BOUNCE for Obama in the overall numbers. Gallop had his lead at 4 points after the convention and 8 points now. The RCP average tells a similar story. Certainly not a clear case, but interesting.

I think this post echoes what many (Politico, Trippi) have been arguing: it isn't about HIllary, it's about the right. Dirty Rick Santorum and the esteemed Sen. Brownback have already praised the selection. The Evangelical right is electrified, mobilized and fund raising. These are the key grass roots organizations that have helped Republicans outwork Democrats for at least 8 years now.

Add to that the chance of making the 2nd amendment and abortion central issues again and you have a picture of a much more well reasoned strategy than simply hoping to pick up Hillary voters with an anti-feminist woman. There were many moderate and experienced women (and men) he could have chose if the Clintonites were his aim.

How about that video that Ryan posted. I mean...ouch. P.S. you can always embed the video if you don't want to have to link it.