Tuesday, December 2, 2008

MN still to close to call

Most of the votes have been recounted in the Coleman/Franken race and we still are not sure who will win.
The following are outstanding variables: do we trust the Franken camps numbers or the MN secretary of state numbers? The Franken camp has him behind 50 votes as of this morning. The official MN numbers are bigger, the difference is that they count every challenged ballot as a no vote and the Franken people assume that all challenged ballots will eventually be counted. There is reason to prefer this assumption since most challenges by both sides are frivolous and the legitimate ones will probably balance each other out.
Second: 171 votes were discovered today. The precinct that found them apparently has a voting machine malfunction on election day that caused the votes to be overlooked. However, the Coleman campaign is challenging these ballots, suggesting that the numbers for voting in the precinct don't add up with the addition of these ballots. These ballots would net 37 more votes for Franken.
For those counting at home, this means Franken could be 13 votes away from officially blurring the line between politics and political satire.
Also breaking Franken's way, it looks like the state is willing to consider counting the rejected absentee ballots. Franken people think these ballots could represent a net gain of 25-100 votes for the Democrat.
Here is a decent article on the subject:
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/35382149.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:DiiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
and a good blog post (with updates on Georgia too)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

1 comment:

Ben the Blogger said...

Update: they resolved the question raised by the Coleman people. The numbers all add up now and the vote gain counts for Franken.